HomeDrought watch

Drought watch for expansive clay counties

Updated November 9, 2026 at 9:53 AM ET · Data through the November 3, 2026 map · 3,144 counties tracked, 287 on expansive clay

On the November 3, 2026 US Drought Monitor map, 104 of the 287 US counties where USDA rates shrink-swell clay a limit for houses on more than half the mapped land are at least half in drought (D1 or worse). 51 of them are in Texas. The low in the last 53 weeks was 43, on the July 21, 2026 map.

Expansive clay is "soil and rock which contains clay and which expands to a significant degree upon wetting and shrinks upon drying" (Colorado law, as quoted by the Colorado Geological Survey), and USDA says that when the shrink-swell class is moderate or higher, "shrinking and swelling can damage buildings, roads, and other structures." These soils shrink as they dry, so a long dry spell is when the ground under a slab or footing can pull back.

Quick facts

How many expansive clay counties are in drought this week?
104 of 287 are at least half in D1 or worse on the November 3, 2026 map, and 135 have some drought.
Which states have the most?
Texas 51, Mississippi 10, Louisiana 10, Illinois 6, and 7 more states.
Is it getting drier?
Slightly less dry: 104 clay counties are at least half in drought now, against 110 on the October 27, 2026 map. The drought share rose in 15 of the 287 and fell in 20.
Can drought crack a foundation on clay?
USDA's soil survey says "Excessive shrink-swell in the thickest layer between 25 and 100cm deep can cause building foundations to shift, flooring slabs to crack and roadways to buckle." Houston's Foundation Performance Association adds: "In extended dry periods, should the soil crack and pull away from the foundation, do not water directly into the gap."
When was the peak in the last year?
181 clay counties were at least half in drought on the March 31, 2026 map, the most in the 53 weeks shown; the fewest was 43 on the July 21, 2026 map.
Which have been in drought all year?
8 clay counties were at least half in drought on all of the last 52 maps, Quitman County, MS; Bolivar County, MS; Caldwell County, TX among them.
How many homes sit in them?
4,178,048 housing units (Census ACS 2020-2024) are in the 104 clay counties at least half in drought; the most in Dallas County, TX (1,064,965).
When should a slab on clay be watered?
Houston's Foundation Performance Association advises: "Tend to keep the irrigation system set on “manual”, and only use it in drier periods when wilting of the lawn grasses and other vegetation occurs." Foundation watering has the rest of its advice and the city drought rules.

Clay counties at least half in drought, week by week

Each bar is one Drought Monitor map, oldest on the left, November 3, 2026 in red. The height is how many of the 287 expansive clay counties had half their area or more in D1 or worse.

November 4, 2025 November 3, 2026: 104
Top line 181 counties, middle line 91Tap or hover a bar for its week
The weekly counts as a table
MapClay counties at least half in drought
November 3, 2026104
October 27, 2026110
October 20, 2026113
October 13, 2026119
October 6, 2026120
September 29, 2026127
September 22, 2026115
September 15, 2026112
September 8, 2026117
September 1, 2026111
August 25, 2026101
August 18, 202671
August 11, 202655
August 4, 202650
July 28, 202648
July 21, 202643
July 14, 202645
July 7, 202645
June 30, 202645
June 23, 202655
June 16, 202664
June 9, 202673
June 2, 202686
May 26, 202695
May 19, 2026108
May 12, 2026112
May 5, 2026113
April 28, 2026114
April 21, 2026117
April 14, 2026124
April 7, 2026141
March 31, 2026181
March 24, 2026168
March 17, 2026154
March 10, 2026161
March 3, 2026174
February 24, 2026145
February 17, 2026131
February 10, 2026122
February 3, 202698
January 27, 202697
January 20, 2026101
January 13, 202693
January 6, 2026109
December 30, 2025100
December 23, 202594
December 16, 202591
December 9, 202583
December 2, 202589
November 25, 202598
November 18, 2025126
November 11, 2025112
November 4, 2025106

Every expansive clay county, this week

All 287 counties, driest first. Click a column to sort. Change is in percentage points of county area from the October 27, 2026 map.
Humphreys County, MS 86% 100% 0 33 3,509
Floyd County, TX 84% 100% 0 46 2,592
Sharkey County, MS 79% 100% 0 22 1,650
Hunt County, TX 78% 100% 0 30 43,022
Delta County, TX 77% 100% 0 36 2,450
Sunflower County, MS 76% 100% 0 36 9,423
Navarro County, TX 75% 100% 0 34 22,191
Tensas Parish, LA 75% 100% 0 35 2,792
Kaufman County, TX 73% 100% 0 32 54,130
Collin County, TX 72% 100% 0 11 437,396
Falls County, TX 72% 100% 0 24 7,450
Ellis County, TX 72% 100% 0 28 75,422
Rockwall County, TX 72% 100% 0 20 43,580
Douglas County, IL 72% 100% +100 21 8,507
Madison Parish, LA 72% 100% 0 36 4,379
Butte County, SD 72% 100% 0 19 4,783
Dewey County, SD 70% 100% 0 18 1,931
Ochiltree County, TX 70% 100% 0 37 4,345
Issaquena County, MS 69% 100% 0 26 421
Quitman County, MS 69% 100% 0 52 3,026
Montgomery County, IL 68% 100% +13.4 21 12,495
St. James Parish, LA 68% 100% 0 23 8,678
Tunica County, MS 68% 100% 0 35 4,812
Moultrie County, IL 68% 100% +89.9 20 6,240
Assumption Parish, LA 68% 100% 0 19 10,066
Fayette County, TX 67% 100% 0 44 13,233
Fulton County, AR 66% 100% 0 49 6,225
Fannin County, TX 66% 100% 0 31 14,814
Lamar County, TX 66% 100% 0 43 22,824
Washington County, MS 65% 100% 0 36 20,867
Concordia Parish, LA 65% 100% 0 35 9,040
Brazoria County, TX 64% 100% 0 34 150,321
Bolivar County, MS 63% 100% 0 52 13,673
Hopkins County, TX 63% 100% 0 41 15,882
Chambers County, TX 63% 100% 0 36 18,937
Matagorda County, TX 62% 100% 0 33 19,058
Crittenden County, AR 62% 100% 0 33 21,388
Limestone County, TX 61% 100% 0 27 10,443
Milam County, TX 61% 100% 0 32 11,641
Red River County, TX 61% 100% 0 41 6,194
Leflore County, MS 61% 100% 0 38 12,619
Noxubee County, MS 60% 100% 0 14 4,728
Rains County, TX 60% 100% 0 32 5,925
Williamson County, TX 60% 100% 0 38 262,644
Callahan County, TX 60% 100% 0 19 6,539
Caldwell County, TX 59% 100% 0 52 17,582
Ziebach County, SD 59% 100% 0 15 885
Haskell County, TX 59% 100% 0 21 3,081
San Patricio County, TX 58% 100% 0 40 30,435
St. Martin Parish, LA 57% 100% 0 15 23,828
Brazos County, TX 57% 100% 0 28 100,826
Nueces County, TX 56% 100% 0 41 154,408
Jefferson County, TX 56% 100% 0 33 109,884
McLennan County, TX 56% 100% 0 26 108,454
East Carroll Parish, LA 56% 100% 0 29 3,434
Fall River County, SD 55% 100% 0 41 4,093
Desha County, AR 55% 100% 0 52 5,799
Avoyelles Parish, LA 55% 100% 0 34 18,381
Gonzales County, TX 55% 100% 0 52 9,020
Cotton County, OK 54% 100% 0 44 2,697
Washington County, TX 54% 100% 0 39 17,642
Jones County, TX 54% 100% 0 19 7,062
Baylor County, TX 54% 100% 0 37 2,190
Kiowa County, OK 54% 100% 0 52 4,665
Coal County, OK 54% 100% 0 40 2,585
Crosby County, TX 54% 100% 0 49 2,659
Refugio County, TX 54% 100% 0 40 3,359
Iberville Parish, LA 54% 100% 0 7 13,544
Craig County, OK 53% 100% 0 30 6,381
Madison County, TX 52% 100% 0 30 5,107
Karnes County, TX 52% 100% 0 52 5,975
Cherokee County, KS 52% 100% 0 31 9,129
Carter County, MT 52% 100% 0 25 829
Bastrop County, TX 52% 100% 0 52 39,706
St. Mary Parish, LA 52% 100% 0 20 22,507
Mississippi County, AR 52% 100% 0 39 19,133
Dallas County, TX 51% 100% 0 12 1,064,965
Jasper County, IL 51% 100% 0 20 4,226
Hickory County, MO 51% 100% 0 13 5,480
Chicot County, AR 51% 100% 0 39 5,108
Latimer County, OK 50% 100% 0 25 4,705
Bell County, TX 55% 99.7% 0 20 155,018
Barton County, MO 54% 99.1% 0 27 5,285
Colfax County, NM 52% 98.7% -1.3 36 9,607
Lincoln County, MO 64% 98.1% +85.2 11 23,790
Macoupin County, IL 62% 96.2% +29.6 21 21,139
Carson County, TX 55% 95.7% 0 37 2,810
Audrain County, MO 90% 95.1% +10.3 12 10,561
Pennington County, SD 52% 93.8% -6.2 37 51,681
Hansford County, TX 55% 92.2% 0 37 2,275
Grayson County, TX 60% 86.4% 0 18 62,132
Wharton County, TX 68% 85.9% 0 35 17,711
Fort Bend County, TX 64% 83.3% 0 32 305,633
Cowley County, KS 59% 83.1% 0 19 15,682
Christian County, IL 72% 79.8% +59.6 19 15,184
Grimes County, TX 61% 78.3% 0 28 12,349
Labette County, KS 75% 74.8% -25.2 32 9,510
Guadalupe County, TX 52% 71.8% -28.2 43 69,700
Kay County, OK 59% 69.5% 0 28 20,913
Swisher County, TX 87% 67.1% 0 38 3,029
Hill County, TX 53% 66.1% 0 30 16,434
Vernon County, MO 54% 65.1% 0 24 8,928
Montgomery County, MO 67% 63.1% +62.2 7 5,832
Johnson County, TX 51% 57.4% 0 21 70,796
Haakon County, SD 89% 49.4% -48.9 20 895
Ralls County, MO 56% 49% +0.1 11 5,056
Victoria County, TX 65% 48.6% -51.4 40 39,481
Washington County, OK 52% 48.1% -51.9 30 23,741
Bexar County, TX 51% 47.4% -32.2 39 820,780
Jackson County, TX 67% 40.3% -59.7 38 7,029
Denton County, TX 50% 39.7% 0 10 376,754
Hale County, TX 83% 36.6% 0 40 13,392
Harvey County, KS 69% 35.3% -57.2 15 14,656
Chautauqua County, KS 67% 34.1% -29.1 29 1,975
Monroe County, MO 84% 33.7% 0 8 4,467
Crawford County, KS 67% 33.5% 0 27 18,126
Harrison County, IN 53% 29.9% +29.9 0 16,953
Lowndes County, AL 55% 28.4% 0 34 4,847
Callaway County, MO 54% 27% +24.5 6 18,645
Barton County, KS 54% 25.2% -29.6 31 12,383
Stanley County, SD 89% 24.2% -17 3 1,542
Ford County, KS 56% 22.4% 0 28 12,743
Randall County, TX 66% 20.4% 0 34 61,677
Piatt County, IL 57% 18.9% +18.9 21 7,412
Macon County, IL 57% 14.5% +14.5 20 49,630
McPherson County, KS 72% 14.4% -52.3 30 13,176
Sangamon County, IL 58% 8.8% +8.8 18 93,382
Warren County, MO 52% 8.3% +8.3 7 16,161
Montgomery County, KS 62% 4.7% -75.5 24 15,538
Marion County, KS 80% 4.4% -11.9 12 5,693
Neosho County, KS 72% 2.4% -45.1 21 7,219
Elk County, KS 70% 0.8% 0 17 1,491
Bourbon County, KS 69% 0.8% 0 19 6,756
Randolph County, MO 83% 0.4% 0 5 10,862
Boone County, MO 71% 0.4% 0 6 81,675
Jones County, SD 94% 0% 0 11 479
Fillmore County, NE 91% 0% 0 14 2,724
Adair County, IA 91% 0% 0 2 3,568
Lyman County, SD 89% 0% 0 20 1,553
Adams County, IA 88% 0% 0 0 1,889
Madison County, IA 88% 0% 0 0 7,100
Shelby County, MO 87% 0% 0 7 2,950
Taylor County, IA 85% 0% 0 6 2,889
Union County, IA 85% 0% 0 0 5,785
Miami County, KS 83% 0% 0 9 14,262
Linn County, MO 83% 0% 0 0 5,988
Clay County, NE 83% 0% 0 15 2,817
York County, NE 83% 0% 0 15 6,370
Castro County, TX 82% 0% 0 29 3,024
Sullivan County, MO 82% 0% 0 5 3,010
Morris County, KS 82% 0% 0 0 2,995
Knox County, MO 81% 0% 0 16 1,937
Warren County, IA 81% 0% 0 0 21,921
Dickinson County, KS 81% 0% 0 0 8,789
Gage County, NE 81% 0% 0 2 10,399
Anderson County, KS 80% 0% 0 1 3,586
Macon County, MO 80% 0% 0 5 7,419
Lyon County, KS 80% 0% 0 0 15,027
Nodaway County, MO 79% 0% 0 3 9,536
Mercer County, MO 79% 0% 0 5 1,902
Caldwell County, MO 79% 0% 0 0 4,275
Daviess County, MO 79% 0% 0 4 4,122
Saline County, NE 79% 0% 0 8 5,799
Clinton County, MO 78% 0% 0 9 9,077
DeKalb County, MO 78% 0% 0 2 4,270
Linn County, KS 78% 0% 0 15 5,222
Greenwood County, KS 78% 0% -12.7 1 3,666
Hamilton County, NE 78% 0% 0 16 4,133
Osage County, KS 77% 0% 0 0 7,337
Brown County, KS 77% 0% 0 0 4,478
Wayne County, IA 77% 0% 0 5 3,019
Coffey County, KS 77% 0% 0 1 3,998
Putnam County, MO 76% 0% 0 5 2,834
Jackson County, KS 76% 0% 0 2 5,638
Riley County, KS 76% 0% 0 0 30,755
Livingston County, MO 76% 0% 0 0 6,399
Ringgold County, IA 76% 0% 0 6 2,678
Henry County, IA 76% 0% 0 15 8,445
Allen County, KS 75% 0% 0 17 6,077
Nemaha County, KS 75% 0% 0 0 4,512
Franklin County, KS 75% 0% 0 1 11,310
Grundy County, MO 75% 0% 0 2 4,834
Davis County, IA 74% 0% 0 7 3,612
Clarke County, IA 74% 0% 0 0 4,522
Lancaster County, NE 73% 0% 0 10 140,324
Atchison County, KS 73% 0% 0 0 6,817
Woodson County, KS 73% 0% 0 8 1,845
Johnson County, KS 73% 0% 0 9 259,655
Wabaunsee County, KS 73% 0% 0 0 3,136
Butler County, KS 73% 0% -50.6 10 27,485
Lucas County, IA 73% 0% 0 5 4,074
Monroe County, IA 72% 0% 0 5 3,656
Schuyler County, MO 72% 0% 0 6 1,899
Carroll County, MO 72% 0% 0 2 4,381
Marshall County, KS 72% 0% 0 0 4,751
Geary County, KS 71% 0% 0 0 15,939
Marion County, IA 71% 0% 0 0 14,386
Pottawatomie County, KS 71% 0% 0 0 10,214
Cass County, NE 71% 0% 0 2 11,875
Otoe County, NE 71% 0% 0 2 6,999
Mahaska County, IA 71% 0% 0 7 9,728
Ray County, MO 71% 0% 0 2 9,931
Keokuk County, IA 71% 0% 0 16 4,647
Chase County, KS 71% 0% 0 0 1,388
Jefferson County, IA 71% 0% 0 16 7,706
Deaf Smith County, TX 70% 0% 0 33 6,984
Wapello County, IA 70% 0% 0 16 15,730
Van Buren County, IA 70% 0% 0 15 3,490
Scotland County, MO 70% 0% 0 7 2,201
Pawnee County, NE 70% 0% 0 2 1,409
Paulding County, OH 70% 0% 0 21 8,551
Bates County, MO 70% 0% 0 15 7,192
Johnson County, NE 69% 0% 0 2 2,098
De Witt County, IL 69% 0% 0 21 7,320
Republic County, KS 69% 0% 0 0 2,661
Wilson County, KS 69% 0% -18.4 16 4,493
Appanoose County, IA 69% 0% 0 1 6,312
Adair County, MO 68% 0% 0 10 11,389
Cass County, MO 68% 0% 0 10 45,834
Gregory County, SD 68% 0% 0 40 2,188
Thayer County, NE 68% 0% 0 2 2,497
Gentry County, MO 68% 0% 0 5 2,923
Pettis County, MO 68% 0% 0 3 18,673
Washington County, KS 67% 0% 0 0 2,714
Clay County, KS 67% 0% 0 3 3,944
Nuckolls County, NE 67% 0% 0 8 2,220
Ottawa County, KS 67% 0% 0 3 2,693
Harrison County, MO 66% 0% 0 5 4,008
Decatur County, IA 66% 0% 0 5 3,659
Chariton County, MO 66% 0% 0 0 3,788
Putnam County, OH 66% 0% 0 23 13,884
Jefferson County, NE 65% 0% 0 2 3,679
Shawnee County, KS 65% 0% 0 0 81,075
Washington County, IA 65% 0% 0 16 9,657
Phillips County, MT 64% 0% 0 22 2,233
Van Wert County, OH 64% 0% 0 21 12,573
Page County, IA 63% 0% 0 2 7,004
Seward County, NE 63% 0% 0 15 7,206
Lewis County, MO 63% 0% 0 22 4,320
McDonough County, IL 63% 0% 0 21 13,587
Leavenworth County, KS 63% 0% 0 9 31,865
Blackford County, IN 63% 0% 0 21 5,853
Henry County, OH 62% 0% 0 21 12,096
Guthrie County, IA 62% 0% 0 0 5,808
Lee County, IA 61% 0% 0 15 15,794
Wyandotte County, KS 61% 0% 0 9 68,803
Clay County, MO 61% 0% 0 9 107,719
Tripp County, SD 61% 0% 0 36 2,762
Parmer County, TX 61% 0% 0 28 3,745
Mellette County, SD 61% 0% 0 27 779
Jay County, IN 60% 0% 0 21 8,904
Rush County, KS 60% 0% 0 16 1,679
Jefferson County, KS 59% 0% 0 9 8,038
Grundy County, IA 59% 0% 0 0 5,498
Cloud County, KS 59% 0% 0 0 4,467
Clark County, MO 58% 0% 0 7 3,233
Nemaha County, NE 58% 0% 0 3 3,316
Harrisonburg city, VA 58% 0% 0 48 18,667
Richardson County, NE 58% 0% 0 3 4,073
Mitchell County, KS 58% 0% 0 6 3,116
Iowa County, IA 57% 0% 0 14 7,369
Petroleum County, MT 57% 0% 0 12 311
Butler County, NE 57% 0% 0 18 4,039
Des Moines County, IA 57% 0% 0 16 18,802
Polk County, NE 57% 0% 0 33 2,531
Douglas County, KS 56% 0% 0 9 53,675
Bourbon County, KY 56% 0% 0 7 9,181
Wells County, IN 55% 0% 0 21 12,074
Wood County, OH 55% 0% 0 21 57,649
Colusa County, CA 55% 0% 0 0 8,211
Ford County, IL 55% 0% 0 21 6,263
Saunders County, NE 54% 0% 0 14 10,276
McLean County, IL 54% 0% 0 21 75,305
Livingston County, IL 53% 0% 0 21 15,930
Archuleta County, CO 53% 0% 0 32 9,858
Marion County, MO 53% 0% 0 18 12,917
Poweshiek County, IA 53% 0% 0 0 8,975
Montgomery County, AL 53% 0% 0 32 106,121
Saline County, KS 52% 0% 0 3 24,157
Boyd County, NE 52% 0% 0 43 1,203
Fergus County, MT 51% 0% 0 37 6,012
Hodgeman County, KS 51% 0% 0 27 823
Valley County, MT 51% 0% 0 14 4,254
Ness County, KS 51% 0% 0 13 1,440
Wirt County, WV 50% 0% 0 4 2,725
Jewell County, KS 50% 0% 0 2 1,761
Solano County, CA 50% 0% 0 0 164,693

Video: a walk through the November 3, 2026 map (3 min, YouTube, Strandline Research).

How the table is built, and its limits

An expansive clay county here is one where more than half the mapped land carries USDA's "Dwellings without basements" rating with shrink-swell as a limit, measured by us from the SSURGO soil survey (August 5, 2026) on Census county boundaries; 287 of 3,144 counties pass. Drought is the share of the county's area in D1 (moderate) or worse on each weekly US Drought Monitor map, from the National Drought Mitigation Center's county statistics. Maps are dated the Tuesday they describe and come out on Thursday; the November 3, 2026 map came out November 5, 2026. The chart shows 53 maps so this week sits beside the same week a year earlier; the all-year count and the table column use the last 52. Homes are Census ACS 2020-2024 housing units. Counties without a soil survey rating are left out.

This page rebuilds from the data each time a new map is published, so every number moves with the map. It is county scale: the soil under one lot can differ from its county's, so use soil type by address for a single house. Full method and sources.

Cite this: Foundation Soils, "Drought watch for expansive clay counties", https://foundationsoils.com/foundation-drought-watch/, US Drought Monitor map of November 3, 2026.

See a county's own page for its soil series, flood losses and housing age, or the home page's clay land in drought list. Why dry clay moves a house: how to tell if your house is on expansive clay and sinking foundation and house settling.

Sources

  1. US Drought Monitor county statistics, map of November 3, 2026, published November 5, 2026: National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USDA and NOAA. droughtmonitor.unl.edu
  2. USDA NRCS SSURGO soil survey through Soil Data Access, read August 5, 2026. sdmdataaccess.sc.egov.usda.gov
  3. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Soil Survey Handbook, Title 430, Part 618 Subpart A (amended August 2024), 618.42 Linear Extensibility Percent. Source
  4. Colorado Geological Survey, Expansive Soil and Rock. Source
  5. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Soil Data Access (SSURGO), interpretation description 'ENG - Dwellings W/O Basements' (table sainterp, design date 7/19/2018). Source
  6. Foundation Performance Association (Houston), Structural Committee, FPA-SC-07-0: Foundation Maintenance and Inspection Guide for Residential and Other Low-Rise Buildings. Source
  7. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year, housing units. census.gov

Sources: US Drought Monitor (November 3, 2026; National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA, NOAA) · USDA SSURGO (August 5, 2026) · Census ACS 2020-2024. Methods